A year ago when I watched LDS General Conference it never occurred to me to wonder what the critics were saying. Oh, of course I was aware that conference always brings out the protesters, but that isn’t who I mean. I’m struggling a little because critics isn’t exactly the word I want, but I can’t find a better one. The word critic feels too negative for some members of the group I am talking about. These are people who, for the most part, used to be or still are members. They participated in meetings and activities, served well in callings and often have tender feelings about many aspects of their Mormon experiences. Their concerns are valid and their ideas insightful. It’s likely that they still have family and friends who are completely devout, and it’s just as likely that all parties involved are struggling to find the new normal and the right balance. I thought about using the word questioner instead of critic, but it seems that many have moved past that and aren’t really questioning anymore. I don’t think critic needs to be a negative term; consider restaurant, movie or book critic. At any rate, until someone gives me a better term I’ll stick with critic, in the least critical of ways.
Sorry for the word tangent; back to my topic…
I love conference for so many reasons. For example, I tend to get anxious: I worry about the contentious nature of politics, I am fearful about increasing terrorist attacks, and I get discouraged by my own inadequacies and lack of progress. Conference calms me, tells me that all is well, God is in charge, and I just need to keep trying. Conference, for me, in a great family time, full of family traditions and togetherness: pizza before Priesthood, conference breakfast, dinner after the final session. Conference inspires me. I love the messages, and because I often can’t focus as well as I would like to during the session, I relish the weeks after conference when I listen again and absorb it all.
I had never thought about the fact that there were people having a conference experience so different from my own, and I had never stopped on the sites where they write about it to read what they had to say. Now my curiosity gets to me, so yesterday, the Monday after conference, I indulged in a little “what did the critics think“ web surfing. There were lots of comments and topics, but the thing that stuck out for me was:
Mormon Church Membership Growth Slows to Its Lowest Rate since 1937 at Only 1.59%
Now, this may have stood out to me because I’m a big statistics nerd. I love exploring numbers and what they mean. I have this idea that you can find a statistic to prove almost any point, and I love to watch people do it. It seemed to me that there was a certain glee among some of the critics, who had interpreted this number to mean that the church is failing and those who are seeking to undermine it are succeeding. But is this what the number means? I did some digging.
My first surprise was how much information there is on this subject. People take this very seriously and follow the numbers very closely. I found that nearly everyone on both sides of the discussion seem to think that Cumorah.com is the gold standard, and I didn’t come across anyone who questioned the accuracy or impartiality of their data. Matt Martinich, a church growth researcher seems to see plenty of positive signs in the data. He has dedicated years to research and covers the topic much better than I ever could. My own limited exploration has been squeezed somewhere in between tending grand kids and doing housework this week. I’ve looked at numerous sources and tried to listen to the opinions and logic on both sides.
Here are some of the ideas that make sense to me:
- Given the statistical data provided by the church, everyone agrees that not only is the membership growth as a percentage the lowest since 1937, the number of new members is lower than any year since 1987. The debate is whether these numbers say good or bad things about the church.
- It seems logical that membership growth as a percentage is going to go down. Think about it this way. When the church only had six members it only took six more to have a 100% increase. If you are claiming 15 million it takes 150,000 more members to make a 1% increase.
- No one is making reputable claims that the church isn’t growing, only that the rate of growth is slowing.
- The trend away from religiosity and towards secularism appears to be accelerating, especially among younger people, in many countries including the U.S. It seems logical that this would affect LDS membership, but I didn’t see claims that the LDS church was experiencing this to any greater degree than other religions.
- A decline in population growth and family size could be a contributing factor to the number of new children on record.
- The surge in missionaries that occurred after the mission age was lowered has passed.
- Missionary efforts seem to be less focused on baptism numbers and more focused on real conversion. More of the missionaries’ time may be being spent on service, retention, and reactivation.
- There is a strong increase in the number of new stakes being formed. This may be a better indicator to watch than membership numbers. Since stakes are required to have a minimum number of Melchizedek priesthood holders and full-tithe paying members, this number should be more closely tied to church strength.
- Are membership numbers inflated by people who are on the records of the church, but who no longer identify as Mormons? Absolutely.
- Is it possible that some church leaders have predicted faster growth than is currently occurring? Certainly.
- Do the number of members determine the truthfulness of the gospel? No.
My impression is that while the statistics seem quite clear, their interpretation seems anything but clear. My personal conclusion is that the church is growing, but factors in the world and changes in missionary methods may be contributing to the slower increases in membership. I feel a shift in the church, among the leaders and members, away from a emphasis on numbers and towards a genuine concern about people, focusing missionary efforts in a way that ultimately blesses lives.
I once again loved conference. I loved sharing it with family. I found it both calming and inspiring. Now, I need to stop writing and go listen to the talk I missed while I was building block towers.
